It’s interesting that, when forecasting the likely World Champion, most seem to be choosing between Schumacher, Hamilton, Alonso and Vettel – to be focusing, in other words, on one driver in each of the four top teams.

There’s no denying that, in the normal course of events, within a team one driver tends to assert his superiority over the group, to become the de facto number one, even if this is not officially acknowledged. And it’s a fact, too, that Michael, Lewis, Fernando and Sebastian have all shown themselves to be very keen on this thing of having the team revolve primarily around them. But I wonder if it’s going to be as clear-cut as some imagine.

Consider the ‘other’ driver in each team: Rosberg (Mercedes), Button (McLaren), Massa (Ferrari) and Webber (Red Bull). Of these only Nico has yet to win a Grand Prix, but then he has never – until now – had the car to enable him to do so. Shout me down if you will, but I have a suspicion that he will show a great deal better against Schuey than most appear to believe. Although Ross Brawn presided over a Ferrari team that for years clearly favoured Michael, he has publicly said that such will not be the situation at Mercedes.

Over at McLaren, Martin Whitmarsh has said the same about Hamilton and Button – and, again, I expect the performance gap between them to be far less than some suggest.

On to Ferrari. While I believe Alonso to be the best driver in the world, don’t forget that Massa – fully recovered – largely dominated Kimi Räikkönen, and came within a Toyota dry tyre of winning the 2008 World Championship. Felipe is cowed by no one these days, and quite right, too.

Finally, there is Red Bull: Bernie Ecclestone has predicted that Vettel will win the championship this year, and that’s not the silliest thing he has ever said, for Sebastian is prodigiously talented, with ambition to match.

I do, however, think it would be a great mistake to underestimate Webber. Because he’s in his thirties, and has been around a while, Mark is sometimes overlooked, but remember that last year he won twice – and that included a sound defeat of Vettel in Germany. Webber is Trulli-quick over one lap, and in a race no one fights harder. Twelve months ago he began the season with virtually no testing behind him, legacy of the badly broken leg sustained the previous autumn, but he never moaned about the discomfort, put up with his team-mate’s occasional tantrums, and simply put his head down and got on with it. I’m sure he will do the same in 2010.

Four top teams, then – but there are more than four drivers in the mix, and that’s what makes the forthcoming season so mouth-watering. And I’d add a final thought: if Renault comes up with competitive package, expect Robert Kubica – as talented as there is – to be in the thick of it.

If pushed, my money would be on Alonso for the title – but I’m not sure I’d bet very much…

As he left for Ferrari, so Robert Kubica – on the market following BMW’s withdrawal – took his place, but through the late months of last year rumours abounded that Renault, too, might follow the lead of Honda, Toyota and BMW, and disappear from F1. Theoretically, therefore, Kubica might have been on the street once more – and, frankly, I was surprised that during that period any team signed any driver before being certain of Robert’s situation.

For my money, he is one of the top four drivers in F1, and some go further than that. His close pal Alonso has said he considers him the best, while even Lewis Hamilton has – privately – admitted that Kubica is the driver he most fears.

When Renault announced that, while the team would be continuing under the same name, a considerable chunk of it had been sold, Kubica declared that he now considered himself free to walk, should he choose to do so. After being reassured that it would remain a serious F1 operation, he said he would remain – but his original contract was for one season only, and there has been speculation that he could well join Alonso at Ferrari in 2011.

It could be that Kubica will have a frustrating time of it – again – this year, but still it astonishes me that when pundits consider the prospects for the coming season, frequently they omit to mention him. In all probability, this is because they do not expect very much from Renault, but if the car is even half-decent expect to see Robert in there, pitching. He might not look the part as much as some, but potentially this is a great Grand Prix driver.

I will repeat that.

On Sunday afternoon I saw Valentino Rossi tumble from his Yamaha. He was under no pressure and not in close company with any other rider. He wobbled under braking, turned in and fell to the Tarmac. I blinked.
The BBC repeated this occurrence several times, just in case we all thought we had imagined what we saw on the Bugatti circuit at Le Mans.

Yes, the track was damp, and Rossi had just changed from a wet bike to a dry bike, but you simply don’t expect to see him make a slip in these conditions. The man is human after all. As was Michael Schumacher in his pomp. They all have their days.

Rossi was the first of many surprises in a gripping French Grand Prix.

As with all motor sport, the weather made the whole thing more exciting. Clever tyre strategy helped Rossi’s team-mate Jorge Lorenzo disappear into a huge lead while the recently underrated Marco Melandri came home second for Kawasaki. A tremendous battle for third between Honda team-mates Dani Pedrosa and Andrea Dovizioso was settled in Pedrosa’s favour on the last lap, the Spaniard pipping the young Italian by less than a second.

Rossi finished 16th and last, two laps behind, after no less than four pitstops to change tyres. Well, they change bikes, but you know what I mean. The battle for the World Championship is, to say the least, very tight as a result of this race on a grey day in northern France. Lorenzo leads by a single point from Rossi and Stoner. This MotoGP racing is so damn thrilling.

I mention all this because I was interested to see how the BBC covers MotoGP in comparison to its new coverage of Formula 1 racing. I was impressed, just as I have been by the corporation’s treatment of the Grand Prix season thus far.

I know little about MotoGP other than it is extremely exciting and makes good TV. I therefore rely on the commentary and the ‘expert’ observers. In both cases they are excellent, Charlie Cox and Steve Parrish helping me to get a very good grip on what was unfolding on the screen. Cox has a nice turn of phrase while ‘Stavros’ is typically pithy and informative. It’s a good team. The Beeb also has the race build-up sewn up nicely. Suzi Perry is just so right for the job, and she seems to be enjoying herself, excited to be in there among it all. In the pitlane Matt Roberts has got it under control – plenty of useful information and in the right place at the right time.

We don’t have a BBC red button, but those with red buttons can watch the qualifying and the post-race chat as well as all the other races for the smaller bikes.

Well done the BBC I say. They’ve taken MotoGP from Eurosport and – for casual viewers such as myself – have done a superb job. They’ve taken F1 from ITV and made it just that little bit better. The Jordan/Coulthard duo was an inspired decision. I mean no disrespect to ITV who handed over an already excellent show. But thus far this season, both F1 and MotoGP have made for great viewing. For me, the bikes edge it on sheer excitement. How do those guys do what they do? Are they mad? Or brave? Or just skilful?

So, The Doctor has fallen from his perch, but only by a single point. The greats always fight back, faster and stronger than before. I wonder how long it will be before Jenson Button is nudged from the podium? He must be due a retirement. And a mistake at Monaco is always costly. Even Ayrton Senna made one of those.

That’s what makes sport so gripping. Ronaldo shoots wide, Rossi falls off, and Button will falter en route to what I hope is his World Championship.

The former Honda team principal has now received full ownership of Honda Racing F1 and has renamed the squad as the Brawn GP Formula One Team. What’s more, both Jenson Button and Rubens Barrichello will return as drivers – which has put an end to Bruno Senna’s dreams of racing in F1 in 2009 – and the team has agreed a partnership with Mercedes-Benz High Performance Engines to supply the power plant for the first ever Brawn GP car, whose colours are rumoured to be yellow, black and white.

“I am delighted that Jenson Button and Rubens Barrichello will form our race driver line-up for the 2009 season,” said Brawn. “The vast experience and knowledge that both drivers bring to our team will prove invaluable as we aim to get up to speed to be ready for the first race of the season in Melbourne on March 29. In what will be their fourth season together, their experience with our team in Brackley, our systems and our engineers will prove a real asset.

“The past few months have been extremely challenging for the team,” Brawn continued. “But today’s announcement is a very pleasing conclusion to the strenuous efforts that have been made to secure its future.”

It certainly is a welcome announcement, not just for Formula 1 fans, but also for the likes of Bernie Ecclestone who was perilously close to the minimum number of cars that contractually he has to field. The fact that Brawn thanked so many people and organisations in the statement goes to show just how much help he has had in getting the Brackley-based team back on the track. “I would like to express particular appreciation for the support we have received from Mercedes-Benz Motorsport, the FIA, FOM, FOTA, (UK business organisation) BERR, Bridgestone, our other team partners and our many fans the world over.”

A very heartfelt congratulations to everyone involved from Motor Sport, and especially myself, as only a matter of six months ago I placed a rather optimistic bet that Honda would be fighting for the World Championship in 2009…

Tough. It is harmless, it is vaguely amusing, and it gives us all something to rabbit on about before we get down to business in Melbourne next month. Of course, there is much to interest us apart from the forthcoming Grand Prix season, but we are approaching what may well be a most intriguing year. In motor racing, and in the real world.

My smart friends tell me that, if we think the global banking sector is buried in the barriers right now, we ain’t seen nothing yet. Well, I don’t want to think about that, especially as I am now a reluctant shareholder in both Lloyds and Royal Bank of Scotland. If I wanted to be a shareholder, I would choose companies that make things we can eat, drink or smoke.

But I digress. This week I want to rejoice in two new rumours.

One: it is said that Bruno Senna will join Jenson Button at the former Honda Grand Prix team this year.

Two: it is said that Richard Branson’s Virgin Group is crunching numbers to assess the wisdom of purchasing the Honda team

I like Bruno Senna and I think he is a very competent racing driver. Not in the same stratosphere as his uncle perhaps, but quick and tidy nonetheless. About a year ago I spent a most interesting week in São Paulo, looking at the work of the Ayrton Senna Foundation.

This is a charity set up by Ayrton with the determined purpose of helping the less privileged children of Brazil. And there are a great many of them. The foundation, forcefully led by Bruno’s mother and Ayrton’s sister Vivienne, has saved literally tens of thousands of children from the scrapheap.

In the course of this job I spoke at length to Bruno about his decision to take up motor racing and about his results to date. A harder act to follow is hard to imagine but Bruno has proved himself to have the family talent, if not yet the supreme edge enjoyed by his uncle. When they raced karts against each other, Bruno often got the better of Ayrton, and the latter was emphatically not a man to give an inch to anyone, let alone his little nephew.

If Senna goes to Honda, I hope he gets the job done. It would be great for Brazil and great for motor racing. Should this come to pass, Rubens Barrichello will be a very sad and frustrated man. And he will be much missed.

I have met and spoken to Mr Branson too, in the course of my work. He seems like a pretty canny fellow with a remarkably quick mind. He is not, to my knowledge, a motor racing fan. But he is an accomplished entrepreneur, and let’s remember that Virgin is, among other things, in the business of travel, holidays and what is known as “lifestyle” products. It is, in turn, a popular perception that Grand Prix racing provides an unparalleled global marketing platform for this type of business.

No, I do not know if these rumours are based on accountable fact. But I do know that both make a lot of sense. There must surely be an announcement soon, as the former Honda team will not want to start a new season without any testing.

While many of the F1 teams struggle to prepare a competitive car for 2009, the likes of Ferrari, BMW and Toyota have been thrashing around in Bahrain. They now know that their cars are not very stable in a sandstorm.

The desert is a mysterious and rather wonderful place.

When the cars aren’t running at Sakhir, you may be lucky enough to see an Arab horseman galloping home through the storm, a dramatic exhibition of another kind of horsepower.

I wonder how things will have shaken out by the time we reach Abu Dhabi in November.

So where does Honda’s Formula 1 team stand at the moment? Well an article in the Guardian newspaper suggested that the team is in talks with the government about a possible bailout as part of the Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform’s £2.3m rescue of the British car industry.

Apparently there was a Honda Racing statement that admitted to various meetings the two parties had had over the past few weeks. However, when asked the Japanese manufacturer is neither denying or admitting to the rumours.

As for buyers? It’s clear that there could well be a management buyout and they claim there is no shortage of interested parties. This is all very well but in my opinion this saga should have been resolved by now. Firstly Honda had a realistic chance of having a very quick car in 2009. The team gave up on 2008’s racer almost as soon as it left the factory floor; instead of spending millions on developing a ‘dog’ (something which Honda has become rather good at) they decided that it would put all of its efforts into the 2009 machine. With this delay in a buyout surely much of that advantage has been lost? I doubt there is a huge amount of work going on at the factory still.

Almost all the other teams have started testing and whether it is bought by Tom, Dick or Harry, Honda and its prospective buyers need to get on with things if they stand any chance this year.

As it stands the Formula 1 grid is another team down for next season. First Super Aguri, and now Honda. If anything, it has given everyone involved a proverbial kick up the backside. The result? Some of the most drastic changes in the sport in its 58-year history.

Having previously written about ways of reducing the costs of one of the most expensive sports on the planet, the FOTA and FIA have agreed on, and announced major costcutting measures for the 2009 season and beyond. See below for the full statement from the FIA.

The discussion in the comments is regarding a budget for each team, however, see below for the direction that Formula 1 is headed.

FORMULA ONE WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP

The following measures to reduce costs in Formula One have been agreed by the World Motor Sport Council.

These proposed changes have the unanimous agreement of the Formula One teams, who have played a major role in their development. The FIA is grateful to the Formula One Teams’ Association (FOTA) and its Chairman Luca di Montezemolo for their incisive contribution.

2009

Engine

• Engine life to be doubled. Each driver will use a maximum of eight engines for the season plus four for testing (thus 20 per team).

• Limit of 18,000 rpm.

• No internal re-tuning. Adjustment to trumpets and injectors only.

• The three-race rule voted on 5 November remains in force.

• Cost of engines to independent teams will be approximately 50% of 2008 prices.

• Unanimous agreement was reached on a list of proposed changes to the Renault engine for 2009; all other engines will remain unchanged. Comparative testing will not be necessary.

Testing

• No in-season testing except during race weekend during scheduled practice.

Aerodynamic research

• No wind tunnel exceeding 60% scale and 50 metres/sec to be used after 1 January 2009.

• A formula to balance wind tunnel-based research against CFD research, if agreed between the teams, will be proposed to the FIA.

Factory activity

• Factory closures for six weeks per year, to accord with local laws.

Race weekend

• Manpower to be reduced by means of a number of measures, including sharing information on tyres and fuel to eliminate the need for “spotters”.

Sporting spectacle

• Market research is being conducted to gauge the public reaction to a number of new ideas, including possible changes to qualifying and a proposal for the substitution of medals for points for the drivers. Proposals will be submitted to the FIA when the results of the market research are known.

Note: It is estimated that these changes for 2009 will save the manufacturer teams approximately 30% of their budgets compared to 2008, while the savings for independent teams will be even greater.

2010

Power train

• Engines will be available to the independent teams for less than €5 million per team per season. These will either come from an independent supplier or be supplied by the manufacturer teams backed by guarantees of continuity. If an independent supplier, the deal will be signed no later than 20 December 2008.

• This same engine will continue to be used in 2011 and 2012 (thus no new engine for 2011).

• Subject to confirmation of practicability, the same transmission will be used by all teams.

Chassis

• A list of all elements of the chassis will be prepared and a decision taken in respect of each element as to whether or not it will remain a performance differentiator (competitive element).

• Some elements which remain performance differentiators will be homologated for the season.

• Some elements will remain performance differentiators, but use inexpensive materials.

• Elements which are not performance differentiators will be prescriptive and be obtained or manufactured in the most economical possible way.

Race weekend

• Standardised radio and telemetry systems.

• Ban on tyre warmers.

• Ban on mechanical purging of tyres.

• Ban on refueling.

• Possible reduction in race distance or duration (proposal to follow market research).

Factory activity

• Further restrictions on aerodynamic research.

• Ban on tyre force rigs (other than vertical force rigs).

• Full analysis of factory facilities with a view to proposing further restrictions on facilities.

Longer term

The FIA and FOTA will study the possibility of an entirely new power train for 2013 based on energy efficiency (obtaining more work from less energy consumed). Rules to be framed so as to ensure that research and development of such a power train would make a real contribution to energy-efficient road transport.

An enhanced Kinetic Energy Recovery System (KERS) system is likely to be a very significant element of an energy-efficient power train in the future. In the short term, KERS is part of the 2009 regulations, but is not compulsory. For 2010 FOTA is considering proposals for a standard KERS system. The FIA awaits proposals.

A number of further amendments were adopted for the 2009 and 2010 Sporting and Technical Regulations. Full details will be available shortly on www.fia.com.

There were two main topics of conversation in the service areas, and around the bars, during the course of what is now known as Wales Rally GB. That’s the RAC Rally of Great Britain to you and me, except that the event is now staged entirely in Wales. Anyway.

Everybody wanted to talk about Honda’s withdrawal from Grand Prix racing and everybody was talking about the weather. These were not related but in their own ways were equally important.

Last Friday morning, very early last Friday morning (this is rallying, remember) we crawled out of our beds in the Marriott Hotel and stumbled to the door to grab our free copies of the Times newspaper. And there it was, right across the back page. Honda can no longer afford to stay in Formula One, the company is suffering from a slump in sales and so, sayonara Honda. Not a huge surprise, possibly, but a shock nonetheless when it came. Had the Japanese manufacturer just won the World Championship then no doubt it would be staying put.

But, clearly, the Grand Prix team has been going nowhere, and this despite the recruitment of Ross Brawn, oodles of cash and state-of-the-art technical facilities which are the envy of many a smaller team. It was inevitable, considering the slowdown in car sales worldwide, that something had to give, and it gave. Poor old Jenson Button, I thought, as I headed out to the service park in Swansea, he really hasn’t been in the right place at the right time, for a long time. But then, if he’d stayed at Williams, or at Renault, he probably wouldn’t have fared much better. Jenson’s a damn good racing driver and he deserves better. But, in Formula One timing is everything, just as in the real world.

David Richards, Team Principal at the Subaru World Rally Team and formerly the same at BAR Honda, expressed his disappointment and his sympathy for the staff facing an uncertain future. “I gather the team has been given three months to find a buyer,” said DR, wrapped up against the Welsh winter, “and they will probably find one, be on the grid next year. I don’t think this is the last we’ll see of Honda but it might not be the only team to pull out as a result of the global slowdown.” Would he be interested in dipping into his pockets one more time? “I won’t be rushing into anything,” he said, “ their overheads are huge, there are certain problems, and I will be watching to see what happens over the next few days and weeks.” Right then and there, the blue Subarus of Solberg and Atkinson were his primary concern – that and flying Japanese executives to the rally stages in his helicopter.

Then there was the weather. Why would that be a problem for rally drivers, you might ask? Surely they dance on ice, plough through snow and thrash through fog? Not now they don’t. New regulations drawn up by the FIA mean that gravel note crews are banned and only one type of tyre may be used throughout the rally. This in turn means that the stages have not been noted immediately before the start and that –if there is ice – the Pirelli Scorpion gravel tyre will not be as effective as it otherwise might be.

There was ice and the tyre wasn’t happy. Nor was multiple world champion Sebastien Loeb, first man out on the initial stages in the early morning frost. “There is no recce from the gravel crew any more,” he said, “and you just don’t know where the ice is, where the mud is, or what is round the next corner. I’d rather go home.” He didn’t go home of course – he won the rally with a sensational drive on the final two stages. It was frosty, it was sunny, the sky was blue and the Brecon Beacons looked more beautiful than ever. I hope those sheep know how lucky they are.

You can read lots more about the extraordinary Monsieur Loeb in the next edition of the magazine. Five times WRC champion, mighty quick in a Red Bull Grand Prix car, right on the pace in the Peugeot 908 HDi – this is a truly gifted racing driver.

Monte Carlo, Monaco, May 18 1958. Roy Salvadori, Cooper T45-Climax, retired, and Jack Brabham, Cooper T45-Climax, 4th position, talk to a mechanic.

The eagle-eyed amongst you will know that I am writing a series of stories for the magazine called ‘Mechanics’ Tales’, which is exactly what the title suggests. These are tales from either retired or working mechanics and good fun they are to do because mechanics tend to be down-to-earth types and they almost invariably have a great sense of humour. They need to.

USA Grand Prix – Saturday Qualifying Indianapolis, Indiana, USA, June 16 2007. A Williams mechanic gets some much needed rest.

According to Kevin Eason, who used to be the F1 correspondent of The Times and is now the Insider columnist on the sports pages, there are mechanics in F1 today who are alleged to be paid as much as 100,000 a year. No, I have not made a mistake with the noughts.

This may come as something of a surprise to those who long ago packed away their spanners. You don’t often see such thing as a spanner in the pitlane these days and I hear that some of the old McLaren mechanics started up the Red Toolbox Club, meeting once a year to swap memories and stories. It is said that when the new McLaren Technology Centre was being drawn up Mr Dennis made no allowances for toolboxes in the workshop bays. Knowing Ron, he probably thought they’d make a mess of the place. Well, it is the smartest, cleanest race shop you’re ever likely to see.

Albert Park, Melbourne, Australia, March 29 – April 2 2006. Honda Chief Mechanic Alistair Gibson, Jenson Button, Honda RA106, celebrates pole position.

Anyway, back to the point. The Insider gave the example of Alistair Gibson who until recently was the Chief Mechanic at Honda. He is now retired from the sport and has been producing sculptures made from carbon fibre. Reckon he must know a thing or two about this virtually indestructible material by now. I cannot tell you if Alistair really was picking up that kind of salary but I do know he couldn’t have been making much in the way of bonuses, either at BAR or latterly at Honda. I knew him many years ago when he worked for Robert Synge at Madgwick Motorsport and he’s an excellent team player as well as a first rate mechanic. But a hundred grand a year? Well, good for him I guess, but it seems a huge amount of money compared to some of the older guys I’ve been talking to lately. They did it pretty much for the love of it, and most of their loot came from bonuses when their cars won the races. Still, life moves on, and I’d be interested to see Alistair’s sculptures, which are on show in London.

Mechanics are a certain type of person, they have to be, always on the road and living out of a suitcase. It gets to a lot of them after a while and they often return to the factory for a more regular way of life. Sir Jackie Stewart (above) was one of the few drivers to recognise the efforts of his mechanics and when he retired himself he set up the Grand Prix Mechanics Trust, a charitable organisation that looks after guys who get hurt, or who are going through hard times for whatever reason. This is a great idea and the GPMT has helped a great many mechanics to get back on their feet and to enjoy a comfortable retirement. As you would imagine, Jackie puts a lot of time and energy into this, as he does with all his many interests and organisations.

Nurburgring, Germany, August 4 1968. A mechanic drives the car of Jackie Stewart, Matra MS10-Ford, 1st position, in the paddock.

Why am I going on about mechanics this week? Well, I’m hoping that some of the guys will see this and will be tempted to respond with their stories. Motor Sport is devoting a page every month to the people who are often described as the unsung heroes of motor racing and we’ve had some great stories so far this year.

So, if you are one, or you know one, let me know. There are so many wonderful tales out there.

As expected the Ferraris seem to be roughly half a second quicker than the McLarens. Although the times are much closer than that, the long runs suggest that the Scuderia’s cars do hold a clear advantage. As for Hamilton’s time in P2, well… he went out right at the end and completed just the one flying lap so who knows how much fuel he had in.

The Renaults showed that their pace in Barcelona wasn’t a one-off with two strong sessions from Alonso and it’s good to see Red Bull up in the top 5. Webber clipped the grass early on in the second session which sent his car spinning into the barrier. The Australian was unhurt but the armco certainly did a pretty good job of short-wheel basing the car.

As for the rest, Kovalainen seemed to have left his sense of self-preservation in the hospital, as he was straight back on the pace. A quite remarkable feat considering he suffered a 26G crash less than two weeks ago. The BMWs don’t seem to be as close to McLaren as they have been promising but, as I said before, the practice times can be a little misleading.

So predictions for the Grand Prix on Sunday? Short of a breakdown or moment of madness from Raikkonen or Massa, the Ferraris look as though they could take another 1-2. As for the last place on the podium, I would have thought that both Hamilton and Kovalainen have the pace to take it.

Having bad mouthed the ITV F1 live feed the other week, I am pleased to say that it is vastly improved. Last time I watched something on there I spent an hour and a half staring at a frozen screen with snippets of flying laps sped up a hundred times so that the ‘feed’ could catch up again. However, its gremlins seem to be cured and you can now sit back and soak up the sound of the V8s. Whether this was down to me and my blog, I very much doubt, but it is now a pretty good place to catch the practice sessions.

Practice 1

Practice 2